Why psychologists must change the way they analyze their data: The case of psi: Comment on Bem (2011)
Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, Ruud Wetzels, et al. · 2011 · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 100(3), 426–432
Summary
Bayesian critique of Bem's 2011 'feeling the future' precognition paper, arguing standard NHST inflates false positives in this kind of design.
Why it matters here
Foundational sceptical reply — also helped trigger the broader replication-crisis conversation in psychology.
Linked claims
Given how many dreams we have, occasional 'matches' are statistically inevitable and powerfully memorable.
Most 'intuition' is unconscious inference. A small subset of presentiment studies suggests something else may also be in play.
The reported experience of knowing, sensing, dreaming, or picturing a future event before it happens — sometimes called premonition, presentiment, future sensing, or anomalous anticipation. Real as a common human report; controversial as evidence the future is being directly perceived.