Why psychologists must change the way they analyze their data: The case of psi: Comment on Bem (2011)
Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, Ruud Wetzels, et al. · 2011 · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 100(3), 426–432
This source is used as challenges evidence across 3 linked claims and 2 related evidence hubs. Its citation record is marked verified; that verifies the source trail, not the truth of any linked claim.
Summary
Bayesian critique of Bem's 2011 'feeling the future' precognition paper, arguing standard NHST inflates false positives in this kind of design.
How this source is used on the map
Foundational sceptical reply — also helped trigger the broader replication-crisis conversation in psychology.
Citation record
- Authors
- Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, Ruud Wetzels, et al.
- Year
- 2011
- Publication
- Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 100(3), 426–432
- Source type
- Skeptical analysis
- Map role
- challenges
- Credibility level
- primary
- Citation status
- Verified
- DOI
- 10.1037/a0022790
- PubMed
- Not recorded
- Not recorded
Linked claims
Given how many dreams we have, occasional 'matches' are statistically inevitable and powerfully memorable.
Most 'intuition' is unconscious inference. A small subset of presentiment studies suggests something else may also be in play.
The reported experience of knowing, sensing, dreaming, or picturing a future event before it happens — sometimes called premonition, presentiment, future sensing, or anomalous anticipation. Real as a common human report; controversial as evidence the future is being directly perceived.
Related evidence hubs
Related research reports
A balanced synthesis of telepathy, precognition, remote viewing, presentiment, psychokinesis, and skeptical methodological objections.
A balanced synthesis of the strongest and weakest evidence across afterlife, consciousness, reincarnation, mystical, psi, and practice claims.
Related sources
Major reference for the sceptical / cognitive-explanation side of psi-style claims.
Reference for any claim involving the cognitive nature of dreams, especially claims that dreams are spiritually revelatory or anomalously predictive.
The most-cited modern meta-analysis on presentiment; central to debate about whether physiology can show anticipatory responses to future stimuli.
The most-discussed modern empirical paper claiming evidence for precognition; directly triggered the Wagenmakers et al. critique and helped catalyse psychology's broader replication-crisis conversation.
The canonical historical case base for spontaneous precognition and related psi-style experiences; cited across the field as the starting point for spontaneous-case methodology.
Useful general-audience anchor for psi-related claims; gives both the field's self-description and the standard sceptical critique.